Will the Magic draft to fulfill a need or to take the most talented players available?
Drafting for Need or Talent?
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Orlando Magic General Manager Otis Smith is trying to put a third theory in practice draft night: Determine the one or two players you like most and see what it costs to get in position to take them.
It remains to be seen whether he'll find a partner willing to let him test that theory.
The Magic are scheduled to pick 11th in the first round. That will be high enough to get a talented player, but probably not high enough to get one of the players Smith deems as the cream of this year's crop.
Getting in position to select that player * whoever he might be * will require moving up in the draft, though how far up probably won't be determined until the night of the draft.
"I always put a player or two up on the board that I really like and see if I can find a way to make that happen," Smith said. "I've got a couple of guys in mind this year and we're doing what we can to see if we can move up and get one."
It's not easy to identify who that player or players might be this year because Smith isn't telling and because the field is wide open as to who is the most talented player available. There is a general consensus on who the top six player are - LaMarcus Aldridge, Andrea Bargnani, Rudy Gay, Adam Morrison, Brandon Roy and Tyrus Thomas - but there is no consensus on what order to rank them.
And Smith isn't giving any hints on how feels.
"I would agree with that group being the top talents in the draft, but none of them are going to knock your socks off," the Magic general manager said. "There is no one guy that is going to take your team over the top today.
"But some of those guys are going to be good players in this league for a long, long time. I would like to move up, but if we have to draft where we are (at No. 11), I'm still sure we're going to find a very talented guy."
If you would like to play the guessing game along with everyone else on who the Magic are targeting, you can start by eliminating one of the two popular theories: The Magic aren't going to draft for need.
The Magic might look a little thin at shooting guard now that DeShawn Stevenson has opted out of his contract and the uncertainty of Grant Hill's status might make finding a small forward a necessity, but Smith doesn't think that way.
"I don't draft to fill a need," Smith said. "I don't think you can draft a less-talented guy just because he plays a position of need. No matter where you're picking, you need to be sure you're drafting someone who'll be an asset to your franchise.
"We've got Dwight Howard and Jameer Nelson so it might not look like we need a power forward or point guard, but if the best player on the board happens to play one of those positions, we're still going to choose him. That gives us an asset that we can use now or later to help us improve our team."
OK. So which of those six players intrigues Magic management enough to make a deal to move up in the draft? The best guess might be Roy, a 6-5 shooting guard from Washington.
East Coast fans don't see much Pac-10 basketball but if you did, you will recognize Roy as the player of the year in that conference. He is a very good mid-range shooter (20.2 points a game last year) who developed three-point range his last two years in college. He averaged 5.6 rebounds, is a good defender, good passer (4.1 assists per game) and can create his own shoot off the dribble.
"I won't say I do one thing great, but I do a lot of things well and sometimes that kind of player gets overlooked," Roy said.
Gay is the other player who might interest the Magic enough to want to move up in the draft. Like Roy, he has a lot of skills - 15.2 points, 6.4 rebounds, 46 percent shooter - and was the best player on a Connecticut team that could produce four first-round draft picks. He is an excellent jumper and has great hands, but his ballhandling skills and defensive toughness could improve.
If the Magic can't make a deal to jump into the top six, there are still some very intriguing talents available with the 11th pick. The second tier of talent includes guards (Marcus Williams, Randy Foye, Ronnie Brewer, J.J. Reddick,), forwards (Rodney Carney, Shelden Williams, Cedric Simmons) and a center (Patrick O'Bryant),
Carney, Williams and O'Bryant are especially interesting because they were either late bloomers or overshadowed by bigger names on their college teams.
Williams played at Duke and though he was the national Defensive Player of the Year and holds the school record for blocked shots, Reddick was by far the better known Blue Devils player. Nonetheless, Williams averaged 18.8 points, 10.7 rebounds and shot 58 percent from the field.
He has a huge wingspan and a tremendous work ethic. His size and defensive skills could allow the Magic to move Howard over to center and still leave them strong in the paint
Carney is one of the most athletic talents in the draft, but has to harness some of that athleticism and translate it into better production. He is best at attacking the basket, but is guilty of taking a lot of bad shots. If he can improve his shooting to where he's a threat from 15-18 feet, he could become a good scorer at the NBA level.
O'Bryant, who left Bradley after his sophomore year, is the classic example of a player who could use another year of college, but the scarcity of centers makes him a top-tier prospect now. He is a rebounder and shot blocker who's offensive skills are still being developed.
He may not play much his first year or two, but when he fills out and gains strength, he could be a very good post player in the NBA.
"I think the second group of prospects is a lot like the first in the sense that nobody there is going to knock your socks off, but there are guys who have specific talents," Smith said. "They may not have all the NBA skill sets you'd want, but they can do something really well, whether it's shooting the ball, rebounds, block shots or score and if you get the right one, he might end up having a lot more of those skills than people expected."
Bill Fay, an Orlando freelance writer, has covered the Magic since their inauguaral season.
